Le déséquilibre entre la population et les ressources, un défi stratégique

La meilleure défense des pays pauvres consiste à réduire la natalité pour l’adapter aux ressources disponibles. Dans ces circonstances, l’augmentation de la population favorise des conflits dans le propre pays et affecte les pays voisins ainsi que tout son environnement géographique. L’avenir de la politique de défense et de la sécurité passe pour créer des programmes visant à réduire le taux de natalité de ces pays en conflit. Il n’y a aucune place pour le choix. Le déséquilibre démographique dans un État est un problème pour le reste. La pression démographique doit être combattue depuis son origine, c’est-à-dire, en limitant le taux de natalité.

Strategic plan to decrease military spending

THE SPANISH MEMORANDUM
TO: rbardaji@gees.org
FROM: ***********
DATE: November 29, 2013
SUBJECT: Strategic plan to reduce defense budget

DEFENSE POLICY
Spain’s military expenditure amounts to $16.4 billion (€13.7 billion), 1.5% of its GDP. Some representatives have suggested a new cut of over 30% to reduce the budget deficit. The military spending requires a minimum of one per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, this is the limit of the defense budget in terms of GDP. This decision affects the structure, staffing, and equipment of the Spanish armed forces.

EMERGING AND POTENTIAL THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
• The Jihadist terrorism (from Al Qaeda, ISIS and the Islamic Maghreb)
• The risks from the Arab Spring
• Radicalism and fundamentalism
• The instability in the Sahel
• Migratory movements
• The African continent’s instability
• Weapons of mass destruction
• Catastrophic events and natural disasters
• The influence of maritime affairs
• Piracy
• Energy dependence
• The risk of cyber attacks (cybercrime)
• Organized crime
• Political corruption, official misconduct, government failure
• The global economic and financial crisis

Uncontrolled migratory flows exceed the reception capacity. No action is taken in the countries of origin. There are no programs of demographic planning.

Human overpopulation, lack of resources, unemployment, armed conflicts, failed states, and local tyranny, cause uncontrolled waves of migration from poor countries. This factor is unsustainable, no measure is effective for preventing or correcting this humanitarian catastrophe.

Almost half of Africa’s population subsists below the poverty line on less than $1.25 per day, according to Red Cross. In Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 218 million people live in extreme poverty. Fifty per cent of the African population is also Muslim.

In the European Union, the number of legal non-EU citizens is more than 25 million, but there are some 10 million undocumented persons and this number is increasing every year. The possibility of return is practically zero.

Some Islamic leaders have suggested the threat of provoking a demographic warfare against a decadent Western world. They perceive a weak society with excessive permeability.

The relative proximity of Spain to unstable regions such as the Sahel, as well as the possible radicalization of immigrants, present a danger due to Spain’s commitment to the fight against terrorism at home and abroad.

More than 3% of the inhabitants in Spain are Muslims, approximately 1.73 million people, including 570,000 Spanish Muslims.

Different hostile actions in Latin America against Spain reveal the existence of an alarming outbreak of xenophobia. Latin America warns an economic plundering carried out by Spain. There’s an irrational violence against the Spaniards.

Spain imports 80% of the primary energy consumed.

The UN estimates that the turnover of organized crime accounts for 10% of global GDP.

All threats represent systemic risks that exceed the boundaries of each country. In this sense, local actions have a global impact.

ORGANIZATION AND EQUIPMENT
•The Spanish Army has too many heavy forces: four brigades stationed in the peninsula and two in the Spanish sovereign territories bordering northern Morocco.
•The Spanish Army has too many light forces: five brigades stationed in the peninsula and one in the Canary Islands.
•The land force has an excessive number of armored fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. It agrees to reduce the half of these vehicles.
•Only one armored cavalry brigade and one mechanized infantry brigade are enough to protect the Iberian Peninsula against external or internal threat.

•The 2nd Legion Infantry Brigade must be removed.
•The 7th Light Infantry Brigade needs a single infantry battalion on active duty.
•The 11th Mechanized Infantry Brigade must be removed.
•The 12th Armored Infantry Brigade should be removed.
•The 16th Light Infantry Brigade could reduce one regiment for replacing it with a civil defense program.
•The Airmobile Forces should eliminate one maneuver helicopter battalion.
•The Mountain Troops Command must lose two infantry battalions.
•The Marine Infantry Brigade may have one landing battalion on reserve duty.

The Army needs to organize a short-range ballistic missile regiment based in Cadiz.

At least one of the new S-80 class submarines should be equipped with cruise missiles.

Only eight frigates suffice to cover the Atlantic Ocean, the Cantabrian Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea. Merchant vessels may be equipped with rocket launchers in case of war.

Mortars and grenade launchers are suitable for reservists because of their easy handling and maintenance.

REINFORCEMENT
Spain’s Defense Ministry needs to create one department of psychological operations and civil-military cooperation to perform complex intelligence activities of strategic scope. Its activities shouldn’t be known. Psychological warfare components mustn’t identify their specialty. It is advisable that the new department uses an euphemistic name.

The strategic PsyWar and Civil Affairs command will include: Information Warfare (IW), Support Operations (SO), Civil-Military Operations (CMO), Psychological Operations (PsyOp), Conflict Resolution and Stabilization Operations (CRSO), Political Warfare (PW), Influence Operations (IO), Military Deception (MilDec), Lawfare Operations (LO).

It needs experts in: psychology, political science, economics, sociology, human geography, anthropology, journalism, broadcasting, stagecraft, graphic arts, linguistics, education, humanities, theology, marketing, humanitarian aid, family planning, welfare work. This department will also need specialists from the medical, engineer, signal, supply, and legal corps.

Before implementing this program, the Ministry has to select the appropriate university to establish an interdisciplinary and comprehensive study proposing an experimental group, MNIOE, for testing with scientific methodology.

The Spanish Navy should also integrate CIMIC specialists—usually, naval reservists—aboard some vessels involved in naval humanitarian assistance missions, such as the evacuation of refugees. Currently, the Navy lacks a CIMIC team.

COMPLEMENTARY INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS FOR SOCIAL CONFLICT PREVENTION
The political and social engineering, control of emerging social movements, and family planning strategies to limit population growth are some priorities scarcely mentioned in the evaluation of security challenges.

Cultural characteristics of Spain are appropriate for planning and carrying out a campaign targeted to expand an ideological, political and religious movement to decrease the birth rate. The excessive population growth comes a serious threat to collective security.

A high percentage of immigrants coming from Muslim countries, Latin America, and Romania don’t want to be fully integrated in Spanish society producing diverse conflicts, and their descendants aren’t conveniently adapted either. This could pose a significant risk to internal security. Their behavior should be conducted through intelligence maneuvers to modify their deportment and to ensure a certain degree of social control.

Instead, the immigrants coming from China are integrated without generating problems of coexistence. The only drawback is the possibility of capital outflows produced by the enduring bond of these citizens with their country of origin because it still has a solid political, economic, social, and cultural influence on the Chinese community. They should be involved in all areas of Spanish society to add their valuable contribution to the Spanish economy and benefit it with their productive talent.

PERSONNEL
The strength of the three branches of the Spanish armed forces is 127,000 active personnel plus about 5,000 reserves. Approximately three-quarters of the military budget are intended to cover the personnel costs. It is possible to reduce fifteen percent without compromising security.

Spain’s reserve forces are assuming a symbolic role. They don’t achieve an optimal level of integration. The reserve contingents must be willing to develop emergency management actions or complement the active forces. An effective mobilization takes too much time to meet an emergency from this organizational ineptitude. Not one battalion, auxiliary vessel, nor flight, can be organized with reservists. The Spanish armed forces may not contain several simultaneous actions executed by Islamic groups expanding along the State in a short period of time.

It is desirable to enlist a number of reservists equal to thirty percent of the sum of full-time soldiers, the standing army. Part-time components integrate a resource aimed at reducing costs to the maximum.

This country requires an office of civilian mobilization aimed at non-profit volunteers for non-essential military activities and local defense, and implementing junior and senior programs (supernumerary reserve constituted by cadet forces and auxiliary components). This measure is intended to involve civil society in the field of national defense encouraging a more active participation in this collective task.

Military enlistment procedures are inadequate for current needs. This model seems too bureaucratic and inflexible.

All junior enlisted members start their military service with the same entry-level paygrade, OR-1, without qualification criteria: educational level, vocational/technical school, prior service. Recruits cannot be eligibles for advanced enlistment—advanced paygrade.

After basic and advanced training or DCO School, the CEO/ED, Ph.D., or domain experts with equivalent doctoral degree, would get a direct commission to captain (OF-2). Medical specialists and civilian personnel with master’s degree should be eligibles for automatic promotion to captain after one active duty tour. The chief surgeon shouldn’t be a simple second lieutenant because it hinders his responsibility.

CONCLUSION
The parliamentary proposal to establish a more sustainable armed forces model suggests a resource optimization to avoid possible oversizing.

The Spanish government can develop these measures in the stipulated period of five years.

La nécessité de rationaliser les dépenses publiques

La restructuration est justifiée par la situation économique. Pour financer les institutions qui composent l’Etat, le gouvernement doit émettre de la dette publique dans un contexte d’endettement préalable. Quand l’Etat ne peut pas respecter les engagements avec les créanciers, répond en augmentant les impôts et les mesures d’austérité sociale comme la suppression de la santé publique et l’éducation, et en réduisant les retraites. Il est nécessaire de réduire les dépenses publiques.

L’armée espagnole sera structurée comme l’ancien modèle de la France révolutionnaire

Les voisins immédiats de l’Espagne, la France et le Portugal, ne représentent aucune menace, et le Royaume du Maroc est devenu un grand allié et partenaire économique avec de nombreux intérêts communs. Le paysage géostratégique a changé. Il y a de nouvelles règles.

La principale priorité de la politique de sécurité globale réside dans la réduction des taux de croissance démographique dans les pays qui provoquent des migrations par le manque de ressources endogènes.

La commission parlementaire sur la défense au Congrès du parti (…) a proposé de structurer la nouvelle armée espagnole selon un ancien modèle organique créé pendant la Révolution française, la « demi-brigade ».

Les armées de la plupart des pays sont surdimensionnés, dépassent de plus de soixante pour cent des besoins pour répondre aux menaces potentielles et les situations d’urgence possibles. La sécurité intérieure ne nécessite pas de divisions blindées et n’avons pas envoyer une brigade entière à une mission extérieur parce que nous ajoutons des fractions d’unités différentes.

Une autre innovation pourrait affecter le modèle de réserve militaire. Le système actuel peut être décrit comme un échec. La nouvelle proposition vise à unifier les concepts de réserve citoyenne et la réserve opérationnelle, en constituant une Auxiliary civilo-militaire.

Ils seront toujours des civils lorsque ne participent ne pas à des missions et opérations extérieures ou des périodes de réserve régulières. Ces volontaires non rétribués pourront définir et développer leur propre activité hebdomadaire sans l’autorisation du ministère de la Défense, en toute indépendance. Toutefois, ils devront recevoir l’approbation du sous-préfect ou le coordonnateur gouvernemental du chef-lieu et les auxiliaires pourront être convoqués par la préfecture dans une situation d’émergence pour occuper des travaux de protection civile.

Tout citoyen, de tout âge et de condition physique, pourra demander leur participation dans un programme de formation militaire de base dans leur propre province pendant les week-ends (28 samedis par an), et seuls les niveaux supérieurs de formation technique et spécifique requerront la présence du ministère de la Défense. Ils évitant ainsi les périodes sans activité et l’engourdissement bureaucratique. Recevront uniquement un salaire ceux qui sont mobilisés par le département de la Défense pour des activations obligatoires en dehors de leur démarcation géographique, les missions et des opérations extérieures, et les destins de risque.

Chaque province aura une section juvénile de scoutisme militarisé démocratique pour des enfants et des jeunes de 8 à 17 ans. L’éducation sanitaire est plus importante que la tactique. La réserve auxiliaire d’adultes se composera de trois ou quatre sections selon le niveau de forme physique, d’âge et d’activité professionnelle. Les résidants étrangers seront aussi admis dans les détachements de sauvetage de protection civile et le service de pompiers volontaires.

Reduce-Expenditure